Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Site fidelity and localised homing behaviour in three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

The ability of animals to disperse towards their original home range following displacement has been demonstrated in a number of species. However, little is known about the homing ability of three-spine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus), an important model species in behavioural ecology. In addition, few studies have examined the role of social facilitation in relation to homing behaviour in fishes. We examined homing behaviour of sticklebacks displaced over distances of between 80 m and 160 m in land-drains with directional water flow. Fish were translocated from their original capture site, tagged and then released either in groups or solitarily. We performed recapture transects either one or two days later. Data provided by recaptured sticklebacks show that the fish dispersed in the direction of their original capture site. Although fish translocated downstream typically moved further than those translocated upstream, both dispersed towards their original capture site. There was no difference between fish released solitarily or in groups in their homing ability and indeed there was little evidence that fish translocated in groups remained together following their release. The homing ability of the fish was demonstrated by the finding that up to 80% of fish returned to their home ranges within two days of release over a distance equivalent to approximately 5000 body lengths of these small fish. © Koninklijke Brill NV, Leiden, The Netherlands

Species and population differences in social recognition between fishes: a role for ecology?

The social organization of animals is reliant on recognition. However, the precision and specificity with which an individual animal recognizes another in a social context, and the sensory mechanisms that it employs, may vary both within and between species. Differences in the ecology and in the mating systems of species may drive the evolution of different recognition abilities, ranging from individual-specific recognition to more general forms of recognition. We examined social recognition in two important model species in behavioral ecology, the guppy (Poecilia reticulata) and the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We found that guppies were capable of individual recognition of conspecifics, as well as being able to differentiate between groups of conspecific based on cues relating to resource use and habitat use. By contrast, sticklebacks showed no ability to recognize individuals in a social context after prior interactions. Nonetheless, two out of three populations of sticklebacks demonstrated general recognition abilities, based on cues relating to resource use. We discuss the potential relationship between social recognition mechanisms and the ecological and life-history parameters of species and populations. Copyright 2009, Oxford University Press.

Accurate decisions in an uncertain world: collective cognition increases true positives while decreasing false positives

In a wide range of contexts, including predator avoidance, medical decision-making and security screening, decision accuracy is fundamentally constrained by the trade-off between true and false positives. Increased true positives are possible only at the cost of increased false positives; conversely, decreased false positives are associated with decreased true positives. We use an integrated theoretical and experimental approach to show that a group of decision-makers can overcome this basic limitation. Using a mathematical model, we show that a simple quorum decision rule enables individuals in groups to simultaneously increase true positives and decrease false positives. The results from a predator-detection experiment that we performed with humans are in line with these predictions: (i) after observing the choices of the other group members, individuals both increase true positives and decrease false positives, (ii) this effect gets stronger as group size increases, (iii) individuals use a quorum threshold set between the average true- and false- positive rates of the other group members, and (iv) individuals adjust their quorum adaptively to the performance of the group. Our results have broad implications for our understanding of the ecology and evolution of group-living animals and lend themselves for applications in the human domain such as the design of improved screening methods in medical, forensic, security and business applications

Association patterns and shoal fidelity in the three-spined stickleback

We investigated pairwise association patterns and shoal fidelity in free-ranging, individual three-spine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) by capturing entire shoals of sticklebacks and tagging each shoal member with a unique individual mark before releasing the shoal at the point of capture. We recaptured tagged fishes in the study area on five subsequent days, noting their identity, their location and the individuals with which they were associated. Stable partner associations between fishes were observed which might provide the basis for shoal fidelity via s